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Inicio > Econom铆a y Pol铆tica > El d贸lar blue sube a $135 y el CCL alcanza un nuevo r茅cord

El d贸lar blue sube a $135 y el CCL alcanza un nuevo r茅cord

La divisa marginal gana un peso y ampl铆a la brecha con el oficial a 83%. La paridad burs谩til se pacta cerca de los 132 pesos.

- 585

Bast贸 una聽nueva restricci贸n para la operatoria formal聽en el mercado de cambios para que la reacci贸n fuera inmediata y notoria en las cotizaciones alternativas del d贸lar, aquellas que escapan al estricto cepo. Este jueves, el聽d贸lar blue sube un peso, a $135聽para la venta, con lo que extiende la聽brecha cambiaria con el oficial mayorista a 83%, mientras que el burs谩til contado con liquidaci贸n anota un nuevo m谩ximo, en torno a los 132 pesos.

El Banco Central emiti贸 dos comunicaciones en las que difundi贸 el CUIT y el DNI de unos 5.000 individuos cuyas compras del cupo de USD 200 mensuales permitidos est谩n sospechadas de participar de las maniobras de los聽鈥渃oleros virtuales鈥. Estas personas f铆sicas individualizadas estar谩n聽impedidas de comprar d贸lares en el mercado de cambios聽sin una autorizaci贸n de la entidad monetaria.

La actividad de estos 鈥渃oleros virtuales鈥, que utilizan su cupo para comprar divisas a nombre de terceros, representa un volumen de operaciones por un total de聽un mill贸n de d贸lares al mes, una cifra insignificante cuando el聽BCRA estar铆a expuesto a vender unos USD 800 millones聽de sus reservas en agosto, por la creciente demanda de d贸lar 鈥渁horro鈥.

Pese al escaso impacto real de la decisi贸n del BCRA, el anuncio hizo聽鈥渞uido鈥 en una plaza atribulada por las versiones聽sobre una reducci贸n o eliminaci贸n de la oferta mensual de los USD 200 para individuos y esa tensi贸n se percibi贸 en las cotizaciones alternativas al cepo, que subieron unos dos pesos.

En el mercado聽mayorista, el d贸lar se pacta a聽$73,53, con una ganancia de cinco centavos en el d铆a, bajo la tutela de las posturas del Banco Central. En lo que va de 2020 el tipo de cambio oficial sube 22,8 por ciento.

鈥淣o descartamos ajustes en el funcionamiento del d贸lar 鈥榓horro鈥 en el corto plazo, que brindar铆a aire al Banco Central en el proceso de acumulaci贸n de reservas鈥, afirm贸 la consultora聽Delphos Investment.

En este aspecto, las valuaciones del d贸lar blue y del contado con liqui estuvieron aumentando, a partir del cepo de USD 200 para la demanda privada -el 28 de octubre pasado-, a un聽ritmo que sigui贸 al del la expansi贸n de la Circulaci贸n Monetaria聽(efectivo en poder del p煤blico y cuentas a la vista), principal componente de la Base Monetaria.

Desde el 25 de octubre pasado la聽Circulaci贸n Monetaria aument贸 82%, mientras que el d贸lar blue (+78,8%)聽y el contado con liquidaci贸n (+63,1%) quedaron algo rezagados, diferencia que podr铆a聽anticipar el recorrido alcista聽para d贸lares alternativos en el corto plazo.

Las聽reservas聽internacionales disminuyeron el mi茅rcoles unos USD 45 millones y finalizaron en聽43.116 millones聽de d贸lares. El Banco Central acumula un saldo neto negativo por sus intervenciones del orden de los USD 700 millones en lo que va de agosto, el monto m谩s elevado desde octubre pasado.

Leandro Ziccarelli, jefe de Research de ICB Argentina, subray贸 que 鈥渓os niveles de brecha actual y lento andar del d贸lar oficial en el MAE siguen empujando al BCRA a tener que vender reservas para mantener la trayectoria deseada (de suba, pero lenta) en el d贸lar mayorista oficial鈥.

鈥淐laro est谩 que esta pol铆tica de administraci贸n cambiaria es insostenible en el tiempo y, por ello, r谩pidamente se expandi贸 el rumor de que el BCRA estar铆a considerando la modificaci贸n (algunos sostienen incluso que podr铆a eliminarse) del cupo de USD 200 mensuales por persona鈥, acot贸 Ziccarelli.

585 thoughts on “El d贸lar blue sube a $135 y el CCL alcanza un nuevo r茅cord”

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