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Inicio > Econom铆a y Pol铆tica > El nuevo plan oficial para controlar el d贸lar

El nuevo plan oficial para controlar el d贸lar

El Gobierno buscar谩 acortar hilo que separa el d贸lar comercial del financiario.

El Gobierno buscar谩 acortar el hilo vectorial que separa el聽d贸lar聽comercial del d贸lar financiero (bolsa, o liqui).聽S铆, en cambio, lo es el hecho de que el ministro聽Mart铆n Guzm谩n聽haya reconocido que se ocupar谩, 茅l, de meter mano en ese embrollo.聽Para hacerlo hay varios caminos, pero s贸lo uno que, por ahora, ha sido avalado por la 鈥渕esa de entradas鈥 del super-ministro.聽La receta consta de algunos pasos. Por un lado,聽el ministro ratific贸 el viernes que聽no se modificar谩 el actual sistema que permite comprar hasta u$s200 por mes聽a $102 por d贸lar a pesar de que le insume al聽BCRA聽poco m谩s de u$s1000 millones por mes, casi todo el super谩vit comercial que 鈥済ana鈥 el pa铆s con su recesi贸n econ贸mica y el baj贸n de las importaciones. La demanda de d贸lares tiene su incentivo en lo vigoroso de la brecha, comprar a $102 y vender a $130 es un negocio cash para los ahorristas. En el BCRA piensan que mantener el d贸lar ahorro permitir铆a, lento, bajar las tensiones, o en todo caso no incrementarlas, comprar algo de tiempo, ver si surte efecto las buenas nuevas de la deuda. Tambi茅n permite administrar la marea alcista del 鈥渂lue鈥, una plaza a la que el Gobierno no tiene acceso.

Desde hoy habr谩 para el BCRA nueva recarga de bonos, que podr谩 utilizar para marcar eventuales topes en la cotizaci贸n financiera.聽La estrategia ser铆a comenzar a poner un tope o techo, no hacerlo bajar de forma r谩pida. Es decir, que a medida que el oficial avance, y la inflaci贸n haga lo suyo, el financiero resista en la zona de los $130-$140. Por lo menos por algunos meses.

El fin de semana, la vicejefa聽Cecilia Todesca,聽volvi贸 a las bases. Dijo, traducci贸n mediante, que el a帽o pr贸ximo habr谩 d茅ficit y que ese d茅ficit ser谩 financiado, mayormente, con emisi贸n monetaria. Dijo tambi茅n que este a帽o sirvi贸 para evidenciar que la emisi贸n no genera inflaci贸n en los t茅rminos que la ortodoxia entiende. Que en 2021 no habr谩 recortes draconianos del gasto p煤blico (con excepci贸n de los que puedan desandarse del paquete para compensar la pandemia) y que el FMI deber谩 consensuar todo esto. Que la apuesta del Gobierno ser谩 reforzar el negocio exportador (granos e hidrocarburos) y que los d贸lares que queden de este lado ser谩n para financiar a la industria y los sectores de empleo intensivo.

Todo apunta al martes 15, donde el ministro Guzm谩n debe presentar el proyecto de Presupuesto 2021 en Diputados, y para lo que ser谩 necesario que el ex presidente Macri baje la orden de negociar a Juntos por el Cambio, esto es, primero, definir c贸mo sigue la virtualidad en el palacio legislativo.聽Esperan, en fila, otras discusiones como la reforma tributaria, el nuevo programa con el FMI, la f贸rmula que aplicar谩 a las jubilaciones y el impuesto a la riqueza.聽En la pulseada pol铆tica, tambi茅n jug贸 la聽Asociaci贸n Empresaria Argentina (AEA). A s贸lo algunos d铆as de que el Gobierno decretara la telefon铆a, internet y la TV paga como servicios p煤blicos esenciales, la entidad que agrupa a los due帽os y ejecutivos de las empresas de mayor porte del pa铆s, emiti贸 un duro comunicado en el que se帽ala el rol crucial del sector privado para generar empleo y reducir la pobreza. El comunicado, titulado 鈥淚nstituciones para el Desarrollo鈥 dice en su primer p谩rrafo: 鈥淎rgentina necesita imperiosamente crecer y desarrollarse en forma sostenida. El camino m谩s eficaz para generar empleos, ingresos y reducir la pobreza es la movilizaci贸n plena de las energ铆as del sector privado, es decir, permitir y estimular tanto a individuos como a peque帽as, medianas y grandes empresas a emprender, a desarrollar nuevos proyectos, a invertir, a innovar y a conquistar mercados externos鈥.

241 thoughts on “El nuevo plan oficial para controlar el d贸lar

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