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El nuevo plan oficial para controlar el dólar

El Gobierno buscará acortar hilo que separa el dólar comercial del financiario.

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El Gobierno buscará acortar el hilo vectorial que separa el dólar comercial del dólar financiero (bolsa, o liqui). Sí, en cambio, lo es el hecho de que el ministro Martín Guzmán haya reconocido que se ocupará, él, de meter mano en ese embrollo. Para hacerlo hay varios caminos, pero sólo uno que, por ahora, ha sido avalado por la “mesa de entradas” del super-ministro. La receta consta de algunos pasos. Por un lado, el ministro ratificó el viernes que no se modificará el actual sistema que permite comprar hasta u$s200 por mes a $102 por dólar a pesar de que le insume al BCRA poco más de u$s1000 millones por mes, casi todo el superávit comercial que “gana” el país con su recesión económica y el bajón de las importaciones. La demanda de dólares tiene su incentivo en lo vigoroso de la brecha, comprar a $102 y vender a $130 es un negocio cash para los ahorristas. En el BCRA piensan que mantener el dólar ahorro permitiría, lento, bajar las tensiones, o en todo caso no incrementarlas, comprar algo de tiempo, ver si surte efecto las buenas nuevas de la deuda. También permite administrar la marea alcista del “blue”, una plaza a la que el Gobierno no tiene acceso.

Desde hoy habrá para el BCRA nueva recarga de bonos, que podrá utilizar para marcar eventuales topes en la cotización financiera. La estrategia sería comenzar a poner un tope o techo, no hacerlo bajar de forma rápida. Es decir, que a medida que el oficial avance, y la inflación haga lo suyo, el financiero resista en la zona de los $130-$140. Por lo menos por algunos meses.

El fin de semana, la vicejefa Cecilia Todesca, volvió a las bases. Dijo, traducción mediante, que el año próximo habrá déficit y que ese déficit será financiado, mayormente, con emisión monetaria. Dijo también que este año sirvió para evidenciar que la emisión no genera inflación en los términos que la ortodoxia entiende. Que en 2021 no habrá recortes draconianos del gasto público (con excepción de los que puedan desandarse del paquete para compensar la pandemia) y que el FMI deberá consensuar todo esto. Que la apuesta del Gobierno será reforzar el negocio exportador (granos e hidrocarburos) y que los dólares que queden de este lado serán para financiar a la industria y los sectores de empleo intensivo.

Todo apunta al martes 15, donde el ministro Guzmán debe presentar el proyecto de Presupuesto 2021 en Diputados, y para lo que será necesario que el ex presidente Macri baje la orden de negociar a Juntos por el Cambio, esto es, primero, definir cómo sigue la virtualidad en el palacio legislativo. Esperan, en fila, otras discusiones como la reforma tributaria, el nuevo programa con el FMI, la fórmula que aplicará a las jubilaciones y el impuesto a la riqueza. En la pulseada política, también jugó la Asociación Empresaria Argentina (AEA). A sólo algunos días de que el Gobierno decretara la telefonía, internet y la TV paga como servicios públicos esenciales, la entidad que agrupa a los dueños y ejecutivos de las empresas de mayor porte del país, emitió un duro comunicado en el que señala el rol crucial del sector privado para generar empleo y reducir la pobreza. El comunicado, titulado “Instituciones para el Desarrollo” dice en su primer párrafo: “Argentina necesita imperiosamente crecer y desarrollarse en forma sostenida. El camino más eficaz para generar empleos, ingresos y reducir la pobreza es la movilización plena de las energías del sector privado, es decir, permitir y estimular tanto a individuos como a pequeñas, medianas y grandes empresas a emprender, a desarrollar nuevos proyectos, a invertir, a innovar y a conquistar mercados externos”.

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